In Seoul, 2026 is not the Fire Horse year. It is the year of the red horse,
and the red is doing the same job. A researcher at the National Folk Museum of Korea,
Park Ock-soo, put it plainly on the radio in the first week of January: the year is
called the red horse because the stem byeong (bing, in Mandarin) meets the branch o,
the Horse, and byeong is fire, and fire is red. Korean usage names the year by the
stem's color rather than its element, which is why 2024 was a blue dragon there and a
Wood Dragon here.
The colors are not a Korean invention; they are older than the animals. The
Book of Rites has a calendar chapter, the "Yueling" or Monthly Ordinances,
that names the days of each season by stem and then dresses the ruler to match. In the
first month of spring, in James Legge's 1885 translation, "its days are kiâ and yî,"
jia and yi, and the Son of Heaven "is dressed in the green robes, and wears the azure
gems." In the first month of summer "its days are ping and ting," bing and ding, and he
"rides in the vermilion carriage, drawn by the red horses with black tails, and
bearing the red flag. He is dressed in the red robes." Yellow robes on the wu and ji
days at the center of the year, white robes and white horses for geng and xin in
autumn, black robes and "iron black horses" for ren and gui in winter. Green, red,
yellow, white, black: wood, fire, earth, metal, water. The red horses were pulling the
ruler's carriage two thousand years before anyone was born under one.
Which brings us to Japan, and the one time an element measurably changed a country.
The Japanese call the bingwu year hinoeuma, the fire horse, and a belief attached to
it during the Edo period that women born in it were hot-tempered and would, in the
phrase the sociologist Kikkawa Tōru quotes, eat their husbands alive. The story
hung on Yaoya Oshichi, a greengrocer's daughter born in the Fire Horse year of 1666
who set a fire to reach the man she loved, and puppet theater kept it alive for two
centuries. Then it met modern contraception. In 1965 Japan recorded about 1.82 million
births. In 1966, the fire horse year, it recorded 1.36 million, and in 1967, 1.94
million; the fertility rate went 2.14, 1.58, 2.23. Those are the government's own
figures, from the vital statistics kept by the health ministry, whose own summary of
the century's births singles out the special movement around the 1966 hinoeuma as
the one blip in an otherwise smooth curve. A quarter of a year's babies, moved by a
stem.
Two things are worth saying flatly. First, the Chinese manuals do not do this: the
Sanming Tonghui glosses bingwu as water of the heavenly river and says
nothing about temper, and no classical text assigns a personality to a year. The
Fire Horse's reputation is Japanese folklore, and the modern "Fire Horse personality"
you will read online is newer than that. Second, it is probably over. Kikkawa's
argument about 2026 is that a country where not having children is already
the default has no room left for a superstition to move the number. That is an
argument, not yet a result; the count will be in by the end of 2027. If you
were born in 1966 you have carried a rumor for sixty years. It was never in the
books.